The backdrop is unusually large
Bain’s 2026 outlook estimates roughly 32,000 unsold private equity portfolio companies worldwide, representing about $3.8 trillion, with average holding periods at exit near seven years. Distributions as a share of net asset value stayed below 15% for four consecutive years. These are global figures, not the size of any one firm’s target universe — but they describe a market in which many owners will need to make decisions.
A long hold is a fact, not a signal
An investment held since 2019 or 2020 tells you where to look. It does not tell you the sponsor wants to sell, or that the price is attractive. Bain’s midyear analysis found that more than three quarters of buyout exits in 2021–2025 cleared above their next-to-last quarterly mark. The productive question is not ‘which companies are old?’ but ‘which owners have an identifiable reason to act, and what evidence supports that?’
Build two universes, then combine them
Start from current portfolio companies of large and middle-market sponsors, and separately from the investment schedules of U.S. business development companies. The second universe reveals credit terms, maturities, and lender marks that the first does not. Combine them without requiring every target to carry BDC financing, which matters especially for Canadian coverage.
Record ownership the way it actually works
Continuation funds return capital to investors while leaving a company under the same sponsor. If the system records only ‘owner’ and ‘acquisition date’, a continuation transfer produces a misleading hold period and a false story about seller pressure. Record the original sponsor and the current owning vehicle separately, with the closing dates for each.
Give the managing director a reason, not a list
The output of a sourcing effort is not a spreadsheet of company names. It is a short, prioritized briefing that states why each company fits, what has changed, who at the firm has a path to the decision-maker, and what still needs verification. That is the document a senior dealmaker can act on the same morning.