What Management Said
Read the full Q4 2025 transcript ↗Welcome to Accel Entertainment's 2025 Fourth Quarter and Full Year Earnings Call. For reconciliation of the non-GAAP measures, as well as other information regarding these measures, please refer to our earnings release and other materials in the Investor Relations section of our website. We closed the year with record financial results, continued operating momentum, new growth opportunities, and an enhanced balance sheet. In the fourth quarter, total revenue increased 7.5% year-over-year to $341 million, and Adjusted EBITDA grew 19% to $56 million, both all-time quarterly highs.
For the full year, we also generated records in revenue of over $1.3 billion and Adjusted EBITDA of $210 million. These results reflect the resilience of our distributed gaming model, growth from our new acquisitions, and our disciplined operating measures and capital deployment. We ended the year supporting more than 4,500 locations and nearly 28,000 gaming machines nationwide, demonstrating the breadth and durability of our platform and its predictable revenue profile. In Illinois and Montana, we continue to optimize our footprint and terminal base, driving steady hold-per-day improvement and margin expansion.
Turning to our developing and strategic growth markets, we continue to generate positive momentum. After adjusting for the stub period in 2024, Louisiana revenue increased significantly in the fourth quarter. We continue to execute our bolt-on acquisition strategy and optimize the Toucan Gaming platform. Louisiana remains a priority market for consolidation with many tuck-in opportunities that clearly fit our return thresholds.
What went well
- Record fourth quarter: total revenue increased 7.5% year-over-year to $341 million and Adjusted EBITDA grew 19% to $56 million, both described as all-time quarterly highs.
- Record full-year 2025: revenue of over $1.3 billion (8% growth vs. 2024) and Adjusted EBITDA of $210 million (up 11%); full-year net income of $51 million, or $0.61 basic / $0.60 fully diluted EPS.
- Adjusted EBITDA grew meaningfully faster than revenue, reflecting expense discipline and operating leverage; management cited margin expansion from route optimization, density improvements, and cost discipline.
- Nevada momentum: Q4 terminal count up 13% year-over-year, the accretive Dynasty Games acquisition (20 locations, ~123 machines in northern Nevada), and a new Rebel Convenience Stores route partnership (55 locations, 424 machines in southern Nevada) deployed in just six days; Nevada now serves 600+ locations and ~3,000 machines.
- Shareholder returns and balance-sheet strength: repurchased ~3.8 million shares in 2025 (1.5 million in Q4), ended the year with $297 million in cash, net debt of ~$311 million (down 1% YoY), and a fully untapped $300 million revolving credit line.
- Large new growth avenue in Chicago video gaming: the Illinois Gaming Board began accepting applications and the city estimates 2,500 new locations long term, with Accel expecting to hold roughly its ~30% statewide share at higher per-location performance.
What went wrong
- Illinois location count declined again quarter-over-quarter as Accel continues pruning underperforming locations (nearly 2,700 establishments), and location counts remain largely flat while the base is optimized.
- Hawthorne racetrack's bankruptcy and decline underscored that the pari-mutuel horse racing market faces significant headwinds both nationally and in Illinois.
- TITO (Ticket-In, Ticket-Out) benefits remain early-stage: 81% of locations enabled but management put adoption at only the 'third inning,' with player behavior still changing and material benefit not expected until penetration nears the 90s.
- W-2G jackpot-limit increases are not expected to help in 2026, as they require legislation plus manufacturer software changes, and route markets rank behind casinos in manufacturer priority.
- Management struck a conservative tone on other route-legalization states (Pennsylvania, Virginia, Missouri, North Carolina)—not built into the 2026 budget—and Chicago revenue timing was pushed to likely late Q4 2026 or Q1 2027 given the IGB application backlog.
Guidance Changes
| Metric | Period | Current guidance |
|---|---|---|
| Formal financial guidance | 2026 | Company does not guide ("we don't guide") |
| Chicago VGT go-live timing | 2026-2027 | Likely later Q4 2026 or potentially Q1 2027, depending on city rules and IGB backlog |
| Chicago market size (long term) | Long term | City estimates ~2,500 new locations |
| Expected Chicago market share | Long term | ~30% (in line with current statewide share), at higher performance per location |
| 2026 capital expenditure mix | 2026 | Mostly maintenance capital in Illinois (large market); growth capital concentrated in smaller developing markets |
| Other-state route legalization (PA/VA/MO/NC) | 2026 | Not expected in 2026; not built into budget/expectations |
| W-2G jackpot-limit benefit | 2026 | Not expected in 2026; eventual longer-term tailwind |
Performance Breakdown
| Metric | YoY | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Total revenue (Q4) | +7.5% to $341 million (highest Q4 in company history) | Continued strength in core markets, incremental contributions from developing markets, and the continued ramp at Fairmount Park. |
| Adjusted EBITDA (Q4) | +19% to a record $56 million | Expense discipline and operating leverage; grew faster than revenue on route optimization, density, and cost discipline. |
| Revenue (full-year 2025) | +8% to a record ~$1.3 billion | Resilient distributed-gaming model, growth from new acquisitions, and disciplined operating measures. |
| Adjusted EBITDA (full-year 2025) | +11% to $210 million | Continued margin expansion and scalability of the operating model. |
| Net income (Q4) | $16 million | Included a $0.6 million gain on change in fair value of contingent earnout shares vs. a $3 million loss in the prior-year period; underlying growth consistent with Adjusted EBITDA. |
| Net income / EPS (full-year 2025) | $51 million net income; $0.61 basic / $0.60 diluted EPS | Top-line growth and stable overhead driving improved operating income. |
| Nevada terminal count (Q4) | +13% year-over-year | Recent strategic and accretive route expansions (Dynasty Games acquisition and Rebel Convenience partnership). |
| Locations & machines / net debt | 4,500+ locations and ~28,000 gaming machines nationwide; net debt ~$311 million, down 1% YoY | Breadth of platform plus disciplined capital deployment and share repurchases; Louisiana revenue also up significantly after adjusting for the 2024 stub period. |
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
| Topic | Previous mention | Current period | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago video gaming terminal (VGT) expansion | — | New emerging market now becoming reality; IGB accepting applications, city estimates ~2,500 locations, Accel positioned as leading operator to scale quickly on its existing platform. | — |
| Leadership transition (Rubenstein to Phelan) | — | Andy Rubenstein moved to Chairman effective immediately and will transition out of CEO in August as Mark Phelan takes over day-to-day leadership. | — |
| Illinois route optimization and margin expansion | Ongoing pruning and redeployment | Continued location-mix improvement, redeployment of underperforming assets, and higher-yielding placements driving revenue-per-machine and margin gains despite flat/declining location counts. | — |
| TITO (Ticket-In, Ticket-Out) rollout | Early rollout | 81% of locations fully TITO-enabled; still 'third inning,' expected to improve player convenience, cash handling, and operating efficiency as adoption grows. | — |
| Bolt-on / tuck-in M&A and consolidation | Toucan/Louisiana platform build-out | Healthy acquisition pipeline (Louisiana priority for consolidation; Dynasty Games in Nevada); M&A viewed as the most attractive capital use when price is right. | — |
| Fairmount Park Casino & Racing diversification | April 2025 grand opening | Completed first full racing season and ramped casino operations; consistent month-over-month engagement growth; evaluating timing/scope of future development phases. | — |
| Disciplined, return-based capital allocation | Conservative leverage | Framework balances organic investment, bolt-on/strategic M&A, debt optimization, and buybacks; ~3.8M shares repurchased; untapped $300M revolver reserved for potential large M&A. | — |
| Repositioning route business toward entertainment/hospitality | — | Phelan's strategic aim to shift from a logistics-heavy route model to a more nuanced, differentiated, higher-margin entertainment and hospitality business via content, payments, and loyalty. | — |
Q&A Summary
Max Marsh (CBRE): Is Chicago VGT just a matter of time, or are there political/legislative points of failure before revenue can start?
Rubenstein: A city process still needs to happen (licensing procedures, how the city regulates/facilitates establishments), but the IGB beginning to accept applications is a great sign and a strong start.
Max Marsh (CBRE): Will Chicago unit economics resemble the rest of the state or be better given established routes/relationships?
Rubenstein: City establishments are smaller (less square footage) so likely fewer average machines per location, but far greater population density should drive higher play per machine; parking/logistics raise costs modestly but the existing platform offsets most of it. Net, a very positive impact on the business.
Jordan Bender (Citizens Bank): Views on the Hawthorne bankruptcy and what it means for Accel's track/casino investment if Fairmount becomes the only operational track.
Phelan: Called it a tough, painful moment for Illinois horse racing (thoughts with the Carey family); pari-mutuel racing faces significant national and state headwinds, but Accel is 'still standing,' excited for the April season, and ready to support the Illinois Racing Board.
Jordan Bender (Citizens Bank): As you step into the CEO role, any different views on how the geographic segments are run?
Phelan: Excited about core, developing, and emerging markets which benefit from shared content/systems; fundamental aim is to shift from a logistics-heavy route business to a more differentiated, higher-margin entertainment and hospitality business. Praised Rubenstein's work and the platform.
Patrick Keough (Truist Securities): Odds of route legalization in Pennsylvania, Virginia, Missouri, North Carolina this year, and build-vs-buy approach?
Phelan: Chicago is now the emerging-market reality; more conservative on the other states—each has outstanding legislation but most (except NC) have a casino that complicates VGT passage, so the budget assumes none pass this year. Accel has a strong organic 'ground game' and will also acquire routes over time.
Patrick Keough (Truist Securities): Illinois location count declined again QoQ—what inning of pruning, and where does it trend?
Rubenstein: A continuous optimization process across ~2,700 establishments; expect some further location loss, but the trend should reverse as Chicago comes online and significantly increases locations.
Steve Pizzella (Deutsche Bank): Growth CapEx in 2026 and balancing buybacks vs. tuck-in M&A / larger deals; and willingness to take on more leverage.
Summerer: Most 2026 capital in the large Illinois market is maintenance (given reduced location expansion); growth spend sits in smaller markets. Capital allocation is return-based—M&A is currently the most attractive use if priced right, else buybacks/other uses; the untapped revolver/accordion is reserved for a potentially large deal, with no desire to lever up substantially otherwise.
David Bain (Texas Capital Bank): Can Chicago market/fair share exceed your statewide share given your infrastructure? And what inning is the TITO benefit?
Rubenstein: Expects to remain a leader but not greatly exceed the current ~30% share; performance per location should exceed the rest of the portfolio. On TITO, ~81% of machines upgraded but real benefit comes near the 90s and as player behavior shifts—currently about the third inning, likely fourth/fifth by Q1 earnings.
Chad Beynon (Macquarie): Opportunities to partner with digital/consumer companies to drive yields; and can higher W-2G jackpot limits lift yields?
Phelan: Already partners with FanDuel via Fairmount's online sports-betting license and produces content through Grand Vision Gaming; always open to content/payments/loyalty partners to move away from a commodity-vendor role. Rubenstein: W-2G limit increases would eventually help but require Illinois legislation plus manufacturer software (casinos come first); not expected to benefit 2026.
Greg Gibas (Northland Securities): Chicago establishment count/timing, and organic vs. acquisition growth split.
Phelan: Confident the market rolls out; go-live likely later Q4 2026 or possibly Q1 2027 given the IGB backlog and pending city rules. The Century and Toucan/Louisiana acquisitions contributed about 5% of both Q4 and full-year revenue (emerging investments, not yet double-digit bottom-line growth).
More on Accel Entertainment, Inc.
Reported 2026-03-03 · figures from the Accel Entertainment, Inc. Q4 2025 earnings call.
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