What Management Said
Read the full Q4 2025 transcript ↗More importantly, we have been successful getting top-tier outcomes to support our long track record of performance. Two rate orders, electric and gas, both approved with constructive outcomes, delivering big wins for our customers, supporting critically important work to improve electric reliability and ensure gas safety across our system. Our large load tariff was approved in November, priming the pump for growth. And this track record of constructive outcomes continues to highlight what the CMS Energy team is able to achieve and further reaffirms Michigan's top-tier regulatory environment.
For 2025, we exceeded our adjusted earnings per share guidance and delivered $3.61 per share. This is up over 8% from 2024's actual result and delivers that compounding of earnings you have come to expect from CMS Energy. Throughout 2025, we continue to see strong performance at the utility, largely driven by constructive regulatory outcomes and robust performance at Northstar driving full-year results. This performance allowed us the opportunity to exceed or beat guidance at year-end, deliver better service for our customers, and de-risk the business for the coming year.
For 2026, we are raising our annual guidance by $0.03, to $3.83-$3.90, which represents 6%-8% growth off of 2025 actual results, and we continue to guide toward the high end. Our practice of rebasing higher off of actuals is a differentiator in this sector and provides a higher quality of earnings for our investors. And we deliver year in and year out, easy, straightforward math, compounding growth, and bringing greater value, how we've done it for years. We are also reaffirming our long-term guidance range of 6%-8% toward the high end.
- CMS Energy exceeded its 2025 adjusted EPS guidance, delivering $3.61 per share, up over 8% from 2024's actual result.
- The company's Large Load Tariff was approved in November, providing certainty for data centers while ensuring existing customers do not pay for the new-load investments.
- The 20-year Renewable Energy Plan was approved, representing roughly $14 billion of customer investment opportunity over the next decade.
- Two rate orders, electric and gas, were approved with constructive outcomes, and the company secured the first-ever storm deferral mechanism approved in June.
- The company invested $3.8 billion in 2025 largely in line with original guidance, funded prudently through operating cash flow, bond and equity financings, and tax credit transfers, maintaining investment-grade credit ratings reaffirmed by all rating agencies.
- 2026 guidance was raised by $0.03 to $3.83-$3.90 per share, representing 6%-8% growth off 2025 actuals with continued confidence toward the high end.
- The electric rate case Proposal for Decision (ALJ PFD) drew negative reactions, including an ROE of about 8.2% well below the national average, which management characterized as an outlier not well supported.
- Parent-company refinancings (about $1.7 billion over the five-year plan) will occur at issuance levels higher than original funding, creating a negative arbitrage on non-recoverable parent financing costs.
Guidance Changes
| Metric | Period | Current guidance |
|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | Full-year 2026 | $3.83-$3.90 per share (Raised $0.03 on both ends; 6%-8% growth toward high end) |
| Utility segment EPS | Full-year 2026 | $4.28-$4.33 adjusted earnings (n/a) |
| NorthStar segment EPS | Full-year 2026 | $0.25-$0.30 contribution (n/a) |
| Equity issuance | 2026 | ~$700 million ATM in 2026; ~$750 million average per year over five-year plan (Increase tied to larger capital plan) |
| Weather (normal-weather assumption) | Full-year 2026 | Plan for normal weather ($0.22 per share negative variance) |
| Rate relief | Full-year 2026 | Residual gas/electric rate case benefits plus pending case outcomes ($0.37 per share positive variance) |
| Cost structure | Full-year 2026 | CE Way productivity and more normalized storm activity ($0.12 per share positive variance) |
| Dividend payout ratio | 2026 / five-year plan | ~60% in 2026, ~55% over five-year plan (Retaining more earnings to fund growth) |
| Weather-normalized load growth | 2026 / outer years | ~3% in 2026, 2%-3% in outer years (n/a) |
Performance Breakdown
| Metric | YoY | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 adjusted EPS | $3.61, up over 8% from 2024 actual | Strong utility performance driven by constructive regulatory outcomes and robust performance at NorthStar. |
| 2025 capital invested | $3.8 billion, largely in line with original guidance | Investments to make electric and gas systems safer, more reliable, and cleaner for 3 million customers. |
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
| Topic | Previous mention | Current period | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rate-base / EPS bridge | n/a | 10.5% rate-base CAGR plus NorthStar/FCM gets to low-double-digit growth, bridged down to 7.5%-8% by ~3.5% equity dilution and parent refinancings | Stable growth, higher funding cost |
| Data center pipeline | Tentative agreement announced in Q2; funnel building | Funnel has grown with two more data centers and two large manufacturers added in the last month; near-final rate contract on the closest opportunity; not in the plan (incremental) | Growing |
| Electric rate case / ROE | ALJ PFD with ~8.2% ROE | Management expects ROE of 9.9% or better; staff revenue deficiency of $317 million against $423 million ask viewed as constructive | Expects constructive outcome |
| Capital plan size | $20 billion five-year plan with $25 billion backlog | $24 billion five-year plan; backlog described as effectively infinite | Expanding |
| Affordability / data center benefit | n/a | Self-generation saved customers $250 million in 2025; a 1 GW data center addition drives about 2 points of reduction in bill CAGR | Improving |
Q&A Summary
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