What Management Said
Read the full Q3 2025 transcript ↗I'd like to thank you for joining KeyCorp's Q3 2025 Earnings Conference Call. As usual, we will reference our earnings presentation slides, which can be found in the Investor Relations section of the Key.com website. This covers our earnings materials as well as remarks made on this morning's call. Pre-provision net revenue was up $33 million quarter over quarter, or 5%, marking the sixth straight quarter of improving PPNR.
Our net charge-off ratio year-to-date is squarely within our full-year target range of 40-45 Basis points. Finally, we continue to build upon our peer-leading capital ratios, with reported CET1 approaching 12% at quarter end. This excess capital provides us with both flexibility and optionality as we move forward. Additionally, sales production in our mass affluence segment also set a record this quarter.
Investment banking pipelines are also up meaningfully from prior periods, particularly our M&A pipeline, which has a multiplier effect as advisory assignments often drive additional ancillary business. We raised a robust $50 billion in capital on behalf of our clients in the Q3, retaining 15% on our balance sheet. Assuming market conditions remain favorable, we would anticipate that our Q4 fees would be similar to last year's Q4, which was one of our best quarters on record. In commercial payments, Fee-equivalent revenue continues to grow in the high single-digit range, reflecting our focus and commitment to helping our clients run their businesses better every day.
What went well
- Q3 2025 earnings were $0.41 per share and return on assets surpassed 1%, with pre-provision net revenue up $33 million (5%) quarter-over-quarter, marking the sixth straight quarter of improving PPNR.
- Revenue grew 17% year-over-year (adjusting for the prior-year securities repositioning), with fee income up high single digits for both the quarter and year-to-date.
- Net interest margin reached 2.75%, up 9 basis points sequentially, achieving the year-end target one quarter ahead of schedule.
- Asset quality trended positively with NPAs declining 6% sequentially and criticized loans down about $200 million (3%), while net charge-offs of 41 basis points year-to-date stayed within the 40-45 basis point target range.
- The company received a one-notch upgrade to both long and short-term ratings from Fitch (senior unsecured now A-) and maintained a positive outlook with Moody's.
- Tangible book value per share rose 4% sequentially and 14% year-over-year, and reported CET1 approached 12% (marked CET1 up about 30 basis points to 10.3%).
What went wrong
- Commercial mortgage servicing fees of $73 million were expected to decline to $60-$65 million in Q4 due to lower Fed funds rates and successful special servicing resolutions.
- Non-interest income included a Visa-related settlement charge of approximately $8 million.
- C&I line utilization decreased about 1% sequentially to 31%, driven by increased commitments to large corporate clients.
- Middle-market M&A volumes across the industry remained tepid, with the expected surge not yet materializing despite a recent pickup in strategic dialogue.
Guidance Changes
| Metric | Period | Current guidance |
|---|---|---|
| Share repurchases | Q4 2025 | approximately $100 million (resuming) |
| Net interest income and NIM | Q4 2025 | grow modestly off Q3 (new) |
| Investment banking fees | Q4 2025 | similar to Q4 2024 (~$220 million), about a 20% sequential lift (new) |
| Commercial mortgage servicing fees | Q4 2025 | $60-$65 million (expected to decline) |
| Net interest margin | year-end 2027 | 3.25%+ (new medium-term target) |
| Return on tangible common equity | run rate by end of 2027 | 15%+ (new medium-term target) |
| Expense growth | FY2025 | around 4% (reiterated) |
Performance Breakdown
| Metric | YoY | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Earnings per share | $0.41 | Steady progress on profitability and returns; ROA above 1% |
| Revenue | up 17% adjusted | NII tailwinds plus high-single-digit fee growth |
| Taxable-equivalent net interest income | up 4% sequentially | Commercial loan and low-cost client deposit growth plus an extra day |
| Non-interest income | up 8% | Broad-based fee growth; included an ~$8 million Visa settlement charge |
| Investment banking and debt placement fees | up 8% to $184 million (up 15% YTD) | Broad-based debt and equity capital markets activity |
| Trust and investment services income | up 7% | Higher market values and positive net flows; AUM record $68 billion |
| Tangible book value per share | up 14% | Earnings generation |
| Net charge-offs | $114 million (42 bps) | Relatively stable credit; year-to-date 41 bps within target |
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
| Topic | Previous mention | Current period | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net interest margin expansion | 2.66% (Q2 2025) | 2.75%, year-end target hit a quarter early | Improving |
| Capital return / buybacks | crawl, walk, run approach signaled | ~$100 million planned for Q4, continuing into 2026 | Resuming |
| Medium-term targets disclosed | not formalized | 15%+ ROTCE and 3.25%+ NIM by end of 2027 | Newly outlined |
| Balance sheet remix | ongoing consumer runoff into C&I | C&I up 8% YoY; ~$600 million quarterly consumer runoff continuing | Continuing |
| Deposit beta and funding costs | 55% cumulative IB beta (Q2) | ~55% IB deposit beta, total deposit costs down 2 bps to 1.97% | Stable |
| Bank M&A appetite | low priority | very tight screen, far down capital priorities; tuck-in fee-based deals preferred | Unchanged |
Q&A Summary
What drives the 15%+ ROTCE target and why can't it be higher like some peers targeting 16%-19%?
Khayat said about half of the ~50 basis point NIM lift to 3.25%+ is mechanical (fixed-asset and swap repricing, including ~$34 billion of swaps at 3.8%-3.9%) and half organic, supported by ~2% loan growth, granular deposit growth at a ~50 beta, strong fee growth, and expense discipline; he noted taking marked capital from 10.3% to a 9.1% peer level would add about 2% of ROTCE, and Gorman added the long-term goal remains 16%-19%.
What is your appetite for bank M&A given concerns about tangible book dilution at your valuation?
Gorman said the real focus is driving ROTCE organically; bank M&A is far down the capital priorities (behind clients, tuck-in fee-based deals, dividend, and buybacks), would require a very tight screen on strategy, culture, and financial metrics including tangible book value dilution, to which he is personally sensitive given the First Niagara experience.
How do you view the risk in your NDFI portfolio and the lack of visibility into non-bank facilities?
Gorman said the NDFI book is a collection of long-standing businesses (SFL with no charge-off in 20 years, investment-grade REITs lent to the entity, insurance companies) where Key is deeply engaged with borrowers rather than holding passive paper; Khayat and Ramani added it is not one regulatory category, the bank avoids esoteric areas, and strong limit structures prevent outsized growth.
How should we think about the shrinking part of the loan book and a target size for consumer loans?
Gorman said high-quality doctor/dentist mortgages yielding ~3.3% are running off ~$600 million per quarter with predictable estimates, while C&I backlog is 2x last year; Q4 should accelerate C&I by about $1 billion, and they plan to replace runoff via home equity (50% of customers have significant home equity) and student loan refinancing once rates fall 100-150 basis points.
Given robust capital levels, how do you think about buyback pacing beyond Q4 and why not be more aggressive?
Gorman said this is the first time comfortably above the 10% marked CET1, the dividend payout is just north of the 30%-50% target, and some macro uncertainty remains, so $100 million in Q4 is likely the low level going forward with more directive 2026 guidance to come.
How are you experiencing the bank regulatory environment and what does it mean for the industry?
Gorman called it a remarkable change, with a refocusing on safety and soundness (liquidity, capital, earnings) away from layered process and documentation, and regulators coordinating concurrent rather than consecutive exams, freeing up teams like cyber to focus on risks rather than exam preparation.
More on Keycorp /New/
Reported 2025-10-16 · figures from the Keycorp /New/ Q3 2025 earnings call.
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