The call in brief
Read the Q1 2026 earnings summary ↗MSCI delivered one of its strongest first quarters in history in Q1 2026, with 13%+ organic revenue growth and net new recurring subscription sales of $39.6M (up 52%, best Q1 since 2022), led by re-accelerating index growth, record $103B ETF inflows, and strong hedge fund and APAC results. Momentum was broad-based across index, analytics (aided by a large one-time implementation), and Private Capital Solutions, supported by three bolt-on acquisitions and accelerating AI-driven product launches. The persistent soft spots were sustainability and climate (modest sales offset by higher cancels, guided to continued muted growth) and real assets property transactions. Management flagged near-term optics to watch: analytics revenue growth decelerating to ~5% in Q2, a higher tax rate, seasonally heavy Q2 cash taxes, and trending to the top half of the expense range.
- Best first quarter for net new recurring subscription sales since 2022 at $39.6 million (up 52%); organic revenue grew over 13%, adjusted EPS nearly 14%, and adjusted EBITDA almost 19%
- Record asset-based fee run rate of $872 million (up 25%), fueled by a record $103 billion of equity ETF inflows (about 35% of all flows into equity index-linked ETFs), well above the prior $67 billion record
- Index subscription run rate growth re-accelerated to double digits at 10.7% with record Q1 recurring sales (~$33M / $25M organic up 75%) and index retention near 97%; strong custom index traction
- Private Capital Solutions subscription run rate accelerated to nearly 16% with recurring net new sales up ~44%; three bolt-on acquisitions (Vantager, Compass, PM Insights) closed in key growth areas
- Standout hedge fund and APAC momentum: hedge funds 17% subscription run rate growth and ~$12M record Q1 net new; APAC record Q1 recurring sales of $15 million (up 46%); analytics net new sales $8.2M up ~55%
- March market volatility and the Iran/Gulf conflict caused a slowdown in dialogue, demos and presentations in the Arabian Gulf region (though management said no pullback elsewhere)
- Sustainability and climate new recurring sales grew only modestly and were offset by higher cancels as clients rightsize sustainability spend; management expects muted growth and continued pressure near term
- Real assets still faces headwinds in property transaction solutions despite improving cancels
- Analytics Q1 revenue growth (>10%) was flattered by a large one-time implementation in non-recurring revenue; management guided Q2 analytics revenue growth down to roughly 5%
- Trending toward the top half of the full-year expense guidance range; Q1 effective tax rate rose on lower stock-comp windfall benefits and Q2 is seasonally the highest cash-tax quarter; ABF basis points dipped on lower BlackRock floors
Management Commentary
Read the Q1 2026 summary ↗Thank you, operator. Good day and welcome to the MSCI first quarter 2026 earnings conference call. Earlier this morning, we issued a press release announcing our results for the first quarter of 2026. This press release, along with an earnings presentation, are available on our website, msci.com, under the Investor Relations tab. Let me remind you that this call contains forward-looking statements which are governed by the language on the second slide of the presentation. You are cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements which speak only as of the date on which they are made, are based on current expectations and current economic conditions, and are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from the results anticipated in these forward-looking statements.
For a discussion of additional risks and uncertainties, please see the Risk Factors and Forward-Looking Statements disclaimer in our most recent Form 10-K and our other SEC filings. During today's call, in addition to results presented on the basis of U.S. GAAP, we also refer to non-GAAP measures. You'll find a reconciliation of our non-GAAP measures to the equivalent GAAP measures in the appendix of the earnings presentation. We will also discuss operating metrics such as run rate and retention rate. Important information regarding our use of operating metrics such as run rate and retention rate are available in the earnings presentation. On the call today are Henry Fernandez, our Chairman and CEO, and Andy Wiechmann, our Chief Financial Officer. With that, let me now turn the call over to Henry Fernandez. Henry.
Thank you, Jeremy. Good day, everyone, and thank you for joining us. MSCI's first quarter results affirm our foundational mission-critical role in global investing, while also showcasing the highly diversified nature of our business. Our key financial metrics included organic revenue growth of over 13%, adjusted EPS growth of nearly 14%, adjusted EBITDA growth of almost 19%. We remain long-term believers in the MSCI franchise, and we are committed to maximizing value creation through the disciplined deployment of our excess capital. Between January 1st and yesterday, we repurchased more than $464 million of MSCI shares at an average price of about $556 per share. In addition, we recently completed three very exciting and highly strategic small bolt-on acquisitions in key growth areas. Our Q1 operating metrics included total run rate growth of nearly 13%, fueled by a record asset-based fee run rate of $872 million, growing 25%.
Recurring subscription run rate growth of 9%, fueled by net new recurring subscription sales of $39.6 million, growing 52%. It was our best first quarter for net new recurring subscription sales since 2022. The retention rate across all MSCI product lines was 95.4%. Our increased business momentum is starting to reflect the relentless adoption of agentic AI in everything we do, ranging from how we capture data and build models and platforms, to how we launch and market our products, to how our people work every day. This momentum cuts across geographic regions, product lines, client segments, and asset classes. We did well in all regions in Q1, with Asia Pacific a particular standout. In fact, we posted our strongest ever Q1 on record for recurring sales in APAC at $15 million, up 46% from a year earlier.
Across product lines, MSCI has built our momentum through sales of both newer and more traditional solutions. In index, for example, subscription run rate growth returned to double digits in Q1 at 10.7%. We achieved a record level of Q1 recurring sales at nearly $33 million. These results were driven mainly by our market cap indexes, but we also deliver impressive growth in Custom Indexes. With more than $21 trillion in AUM benchmarked to MSCI indexes, the ecosystem around our products is scaling to new heights. This includes $7.4 trillion of indexed equity AUM benchmarked to MSCI indexes, comprised of $2.4 trillion in ETF products and $4.9 trillion in non-ETF products. Q1 was our best quarter since 2023 for traded volumes and run rate from listed futures and options contracts linked to MSCI indexes.
This further reinforces the power of our ecosystem and our shared success with the MSCI exchange partners, including our new licensing agreement for options on MSCI indexes listed on the New York Stock Exchange. AI is helping us capitalize on these trends by offering more flexibility, faster customization, and greater interoperability. For example, our new IndexAI Insights connector makes it easier for clients to answer questions about our index data and methodologies using their preferred AI large language models, such as Claude and ChatGPT, or on MSCI ONE. Hundreds of clients have used IndexAI Insights since our launch in late February. MSCI's recent acquisition of Compass Financial Technologies, a Swiss-based provider of index calculation services, extends our customization capabilities into additional asset classes such as commodities, digital assets, and equity derivatives.
Meanwhile, in private capital solutions, we deliver recurring net new sales growth of nearly 44% in Q1 while driving adoption of both newer and established solutions. Some of our reimagined and innovative new tools include daily private valuation indexes and benchmarks for private equity and private credit. MSCI's AI capabilities in private assets have increased dramatically over the past year, including a new connector on Claude linked to our Private Capital Intel fund benchmarking. We're helping allocators streamline the due diligence and evaluation of private fund managers at scale with our private asset due diligence platform. Our recent acquisition of Vantager, a platform built entirely on AI, accelerates our ability to help clients perform better due diligence when investing in private markets.
Likewise, our acquisition of PM Insights earlier this month will help us deliver secondary market pricing, liquidity, and reference data, which will support more robust portfolio construction and the development of indexes and analytics solutions. Turning back to MSCI's Q1 performance, in analytics, we drove recurring net new subscription sales of $8.2 million, up nearly 55%, reflecting large wins and renewals of our equity offerings and enterprise risk tools. These wins underscore the continued innovation of our factor capabilities, such as our next-gen models and the release of basket-building solutions for the market-making and trading community. They also demonstrate our advancements across total portfolio solutions, including our own parallel private asset coverage, as seen in our new private credit risk models. Among client segments, MSCI had an especially strong quarter with hedge funds and traders.
Among hedge funds specifically, we posted subscription run rate growth of 17%, along with our highest ever level of Q1 recurring net new subscription sales at roughly $12 million. These results were driven mainly by index and analytics. These wins included a seven-figure index rebalancing deal with a top global hedge fund. In analytics, hedge funds are also licensing our crowded trades datasets to support their alpha generation. Among banks and broker-dealers, we delivered subscription run rate growth of almost 11%, along with our best ever Q1 for recurring net new sales at nearly $11 million. Shifting to asset owners, MSCI achieved subscription run rate growth of nearly 10%, driven by private capital solutions and analytics. As more pension funds diversified into private markets, we see growing demand for our total portfolio solutions and private asset tools, including our tools for benchmarking and for transparency.
Moving on to asset managers, we posted subscription run rate growth of over 6%, along with nearly 11% recurring net new sales growth, including notably, a strong growth in analytics and a retention rate of close to 96%. MSCI is executing on key growth opportunities for the asset management segment, including advanced data sets, private assets, total portfolio solutions, and active ETFs. Looking at our Q1 performance as a whole, we once again demonstrated the benefits of our all-weather franchise, our client segment and product diversification, recurring revenue financial model, and the growing liquidity and scale of the investment ecosystem linked to our indexes and our IP. Our ongoing technology and AI-driven transformation will strengthen these advantages. To help us lead that transformation, Dinesh Gupta joined MSCI last month as our new Chief Data Officer and Global Head of Operations.
Dinesh came to us from Goldman Sachs, where he spent nearly three decades and held leadership roles spanning multiple business lines, including asset and wealth management. Dinesh served as Global Head of Data Engineering at Goldman, and he also led the organization responsible for building agentic AI platforms and machine learning capabilities across the whole firm. He's ideally suited to help MSCI strengthen our comprehensive data strategy, reinforce our technology and AI-first mindset, and accelerate our transformation. With that, let me turn the call over to Andy. Andy?
Thanks, Henry. As you indicated, it's a very exciting time to be at MSCI. We closed one of the strongest first quarters in our history, reaffirming our traction across key initiatives, and we are growing our market share and expanding our influence in the increasingly AI-centric investment industry. Index organic subscription run rate growth re-accelerated to low double-digit levels at over 10%, with record Q1 recurring net new sales of $25 million, up 75% year-over-year. We benefited from a few large deals with trader and hedge fund clients, where these opportunities included new Custom Index content, such as our non-ETF Custom Index and constituent data sets, which span rebalancing and history use cases. Additionally, we had another quarter of strong traction with our market cap modules, where we saw success across asset managers, hedge funds, and broker-dealers.
Index retention was nearly 97% for the quarter, further improving from last year's levels. Asset-based fee run rate growth was 25%, fueled by the incredible flows to products linked to MSCI indexes. Equity ETFs linked to our indexes captured a record $103 billion of inflows during the quarter, representing roughly 35% of all flows into equity index-linked ETFs. To put that in context, the prior record for quarterly inflows was $67 billion, which occurred in the fourth quarter of last year. Global investors continued to deploy significant capital into ETF and non-ETF products linked to MSCI developed markets ex-US indexes and MSCI emerging markets indexes. Additionally, our clients are seeing very strong performance in European-listed ETFs linked to our indexes. In general, we see attractive white space opportunities in the European market.
Nearly $1.1 trillion of the $2.4 trillion of AUM in equity ETFs linked to our indexes comes from European-listed products. During the first quarter, we saw European-listed ETFs capture $46 billion of inflows, which was nearly 50% of all flows in the region. In Analytics, we had subscription run rate growth of nearly 8%, driven by new recurring sales of $17 million, which grew 30% from a year ago. We saw continued strength in equity analytics, and we had some large enterprise risk and performance wins. The Analytics Q1 revenue growth was over 10%, although this reflected a higher volume of implementations recognized in non-recurring revenues. For Q2 2026, we currently expect Analytics year-over-year revenue growth to be roughly 5% for the quarter. In Private Capital Solutions, subscription run rate growth accelerated to nearly 16%.
We've seen strong momentum with our transparency data, Private Capital Intel, and total plan offerings, all of which have benefited from numerous enhancements and new capabilities. In real assets, we still face some headwinds with our property transaction solutions, although we had another quarter of improving cancels and solid sales of our index intel offering for property benchmarking use cases. In sustainability and climate, while new recurring sales grew modestly, they were offset by higher cancels. We are seeing clients focus spend on their most critical sustainability priorities, which leads to some down sales, although it has also led to competitive wins for us. We expect these pressures and the muted growth in sustainability and climate to continue in the near term. Our capital position remains strong, with close to $400 million of cash on our balance sheet at the end of March.
As Henry noted, we completed the acquisitions of Vantager, Compass during the first quarter, and PM Insights earlier this month. These three acquisitions add a relatively modest contribution to run rate and ongoing expenses. On guidance, we updated our full year outlook on D&A by $5 million to incorporate the impact of intangibles related to the acquisitions. Given the strong ABF performance and the assumption of very gradual market appreciation in the back half of the year, we are trending to be in the top half of our expense guidance range. The Q1 effective tax rate reflected lower tax windfall benefits from the vesting of stock-based compensation compared to recent years. I would highlight our effective tax rate outlook for 2026 is unchanged, and for Q2, we expect to have an effective tax rate between 18%-20%.
The free cash flow outlook for the full year is unchanged, although Q2 is seasonally the highest quarter for cash tax payments for us. Looking ahead, we have an attractive pipeline of opportunities as we drive adoption of our new and existing solutions across the investment landscape. Our strong start to 2026 reaffirms the mission-critical nature of our solutions in today's AI-first economy. We are seeing solid momentum in delivering new products and capabilities, supported by enhanced go-to-market efforts, which are translating through to tangible results. We are focused on meeting client needs and enhancing value across client segments. We look forward to keeping you posted on our progress. With that, operator, please open the line for questions.
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