What Management Said
Read the full Q3 2025 transcript ↗NextEra Energy delivered strong third quarter results with adjusted earnings per share increasing 9.7% year-over-year. In addition, through the first nine months of the year, our adjusted earnings per share has increased 9.3% year-over-year. As we discussed with you earlier this month, our long-term earnings growth drivers are extensive, both inside and outside Florida. The Florida economy continues to see significant economic growth, and Florida Power & Light Company continues to make smart, long-term investments to serve that growth while keeping bills low and reliability high.
The four-year proposed agreement would provide an allowed midpoint regulatory return on equity of 10.95% with a range of 9.95%-11.95%. If the proposed agreement is approved, typical residential customer bills would increase only about 2% annually between 2025 and 2029. Hyperscalers, data center operators, and load-serving entities continue to tell us they need solutions for large load today and tomorrow to address growing energy demand across America. As a demonstration of the pride of working at Duane Arnold and for NextEra Energy, a significant number of Duane Arnold's previous workforce are looking to return to work at the facility.
For the third quarter of 2025, FPL's earnings per share increased by $0.08 year-over-year. The principal driver of this performance was FPL's regulatory capital employee growth of approximately 8% year-over-year. FPL's capital expenditures were approximately $2.5 billion for the quarter, and we expect FPL's full-year capital investments to be between $9.3 billion-$9.8 billion. For the 12 months ending September 2025, FPL's reported return on equity for regulatory purposes will be approximately 11.7%.
What went well
- NextEra Energy delivered strong Q3 2025 results with adjusted earnings per share up 9.7% year over year, and adjusted EPS up 9.3% year over year through the first nine months.
- Energy Resources reported adjusted earnings growth of about 13% year over year and added 3 GW to its backlog (the sixth consecutive quarter of three or more gigawatts), bringing the backlog to nearly 30 GW after placing more than 1.7 GW into service since the prior call.
- Battery storage origination had its strongest quarter ever with 1.9 GW of additions, and the company originated 2.8 GW of new storage opportunities over the second and third quarters combined.
- The company announced a 25-year power purchase agreement with Google to recommission the 615-megawatt Duane Arnold nuclear plant in Iowa (expected back online no later than Q1 2029, possibly as early as Q4 2028), and signed agreements to acquire the 30% minority interest to reach 100% ownership.
- FPL continues to deliver top-decile reliability nearly 60% better than the national average with non-fuel O&M roughly 70% below the national average, and reached a proposed four-year rate settlement with most interveners providing a 10.95% midpoint allowed ROE and limiting typical residential bill increases to about 2% annually through 2029.
- The summer's federal tax-credit outcome provided policy certainty for renewables through 2030, with Energy Resources holding about 1.5x coverage of the project inventory needed to support development expectations through 2030.
What went wrong
- FPL Q3 retail sales decreased 1.8% year over year due to milder weather, though weather-normalized retail sales rose 1.9% on customer growth and underlying usage.
- Energy Resources contribution from the existing clean energy portfolio was flat year over year as weaker wind resource (about 90% of long-term average versus 93% a year earlier) was offset by better nuclear fleet performance.
- All other Energy Resources impacts decreased $0.09 per share on prior-year asset recycling and higher financing costs related to borrowing to support new investments, and corporate and other adjusted EPS decreased $0.04 per share.
- Roughly 900 MW left the backlog this quarter (650 MW removed conservatively for development reasons on smaller projects, plus a 250 MW permitting delay shifting from 2025 to 2026), though management expects to recover all of it in 2026-2027.
Guidance Changes
| Metric | Period | Current guidance |
|---|---|---|
| 2025/2026/2027 adjusted EPS expectations | FY2025-FY2027 | Reaffirmed; would be disappointed not to deliver at or near the top end of each range (reaffirmed) |
| Operating cash flow growth (2023-2027) | 2023-2027 | Same: average annual growth at or above adjusted EPS CAGR range (reaffirmed) |
| Dividends per share growth | through at least 2026 (off 2024 base) | ~10% per year (reaffirmed) |
| FPL full-year 2025 capital investments | FY2025 | $9.3B-$9.8B (issued) |
| FPL four-year capital plan | next four years | ~$40B, including 5.3 GW solar, 3.4 GW battery storage, and a gas peaker (pending approvals) (issued) |
| Duane Arnold PPA accretion | first 10 years of PPA | ~$0.16 average annual accretion with limited year-to-year variability around refueling outages (issued) |
Performance Breakdown
| Metric | YoY | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Consolidated adjusted EPS | +9.7% (Q3); +9.3% YTD nine months | Strong performance at both FPL and Energy Resources |
| FPL EPS | +$0.08 | Regulatory capital employed growth of about 8% year over year |
| FPL regulatory ROE (12 months ended Sept 2025) | ~11.7% | Used reserve amortization (reversed ~$218M in Q3, ~$473M balance remaining) |
| FPL retail sales | -1.8% (reported); +1.9% weather-normalized | Milder weather; underlying customer growth and usage |
| Energy Resources adjusted earnings | +~13% (EPS +$0.06) | New investments contributed +$0.09 from renewables growth; existing portfolio flat (weak wind offset by nuclear); customer supply +$0.06 on origination timing; other -$0.09 |
| Energy Resources backlog | to nearly 30 GW | Sixth consecutive quarter adding 3+ GW; 1.9 GW record storage origination |
| Wind resource | ~90% of long-term average vs 93% prior year | Weaker wind conditions |
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
| Topic | Previous mention | Current period | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Power demand / golden age | — | America described as in a golden age of power demand with new electrons unable to get on the grid fast enough; NextEra positioned to lead across all generation types | Accelerating tailwind |
| Nuclear restart and advanced nuclear | — | Duane Arnold recommissioning with Google PPA; exploration of advanced nuclear; ~6 GW of SMR potential across Point Beach, Seabrook, and existing sites | Expanding |
| Hyperscaler / data center demand | — | Bring-your-own-generation trend plays to NextEra's combined renewables, storage, gas, nuclear, transmission, and customer-supply capabilities; renewables/storage used to secure early load interconnects ahead of baseload gas | Growing |
| Battery storage leadership | — | Record 1.9 GW origination quarter; storage economically advantaged, buildable in 16-18 months versus four to five years for gas peakers; domestic, FEOC-de-risked battery supply | Strong growth |
| Gas-fired generation re-entry | — | Leveraging 20-year track record and GE Vernova partnership to pivot back into combined-cycle and peaker development for data center hubs | Emerging growth lever |
| Re-contracting and project returns | returns higher than ever (noted a month earlier) | Returns remain the highest seen in the industry on supply/demand imbalance; large long power position rolls off contract by decade-end to be re-contracted at premiums | Favorable |
| FPL rate case | filed February 28; proposed settlement reached in August | Evidentiary hearings completed; final FPSC decision expected November 20; 10.95% midpoint ROE, ~2% annual bill increases through 2029 | Progressing |
Q&A Summary
What is the cost to restart Duane Arnold and the price to buy in the 30% minority interest?
Management would not disclose the CapEx on the call but expressed high confidence in efficient recommissioning since the same team that decommissioned the plant will restart it. The 30% buyout of CIPCO and Corn Belt was done in exchange for assuming their decommissioning liability, which NextEra has more than ample funds set aside for.
What drove the roughly 1 GW removed from the backlog?
About 650 MW was conservatively removed on smaller projects for development reasons (expected back in 2026-2027) and 250 MW shifted from 2025 to 2026 on a permitting delay; together about one-thirtieth of the backlog, with no impact on financial expectations through 2027.
What is the appetite for new large-scale nuclear (e.g., AP1000) versus SMRs and restarts?
Focus is on Duane Arnold, Point Beach, and Seabrook (about 6 GW of SMR potential) plus greenfield sites, with disciplined capital allocation to limit financial exposure; the bring-your-own-generation trend strongly favors large-scale developers like NextEra.
How does the contracted gas strategy and hyperscaler cadence look beyond 2030?
There is a lot in the hopper, with combined-cycle buildout central to the data-center hub strategy; renewables, storage, SMRs, transmission, and gas pipelines all play to NextEra's strengths, with more detail to come at the December 8 investor conference.
How do the Esmeralda and Jackalope projects relate to the backlog?
Esmeralda was a development project on BLM land, not in the backlog, with no money spent; Jackalope will extend out as work with the customer continues. Both are small relative to the massive pipeline backed by 1.5x inventory coverage.
Is the demand pull-forward from expiring tax credits a 2028+ event or could it help 2026-2027?
The pull-forward escalates closer to 2030; 2026 and 2027 are in good shape with more quarters to fill 2027, while the biggest opportunity is in 2028-2030 where NextEra is well positioned on FEOC and safe-harbor.
What is the cadence and variability of the ~$0.16 Duane Arnold accretion over the first 10 years?
There is no significant year-to-year variability; it moves around modestly with nuclear refueling outages, which is why average language was used.
More on Nextera Energy Inc
Reported 2025-10-28 · figures from the Nextera Energy Inc Q3 2025 earnings call.
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