What Management Said
Read the full Q4 2025 transcript ↗Our expectations are to grow adjusted earnings per share at a compound annual growth rate of 8%+ through 2032, and we are targeting the same from 2032 through 2035, all off the 2025 base. Importantly, our forecast to growth is visible and balanced between our regulated and long-term contracted businesses. FPL expects to invest between $90 billion and $100 billion through 2032, primarily to support Florida's growth, while continuing its track record of keeping customer bills low and reliability high. FPL expects typical residential customer bills to increase only about 2% annually between 2025 and 2029, which is lower than the current inflation rate of about 3%.
The four-year rate agreement also provides an allowed midpoint regulatory return on equity of 10.95%, with a range of 9.95% to 11.95%. For context, every gigawatt is equivalent to roughly $2 billion of CapEx and earns the same return on equity as other FPL investments. Florida leads the nation in key economic indicators like income migration, manufacturing, job growth, and corporate headquarter relocations. A diverse set of high-growth industries is bringing new businesses to the state, from the Space Coast to Miami and all across Florida.
NextEra Energy Transmission is one of America's leading independent electric transmission companies, with total regulated and secure capital of $8 billion. Energy Resources has ownership interests in more than 1,000 miles of FERC-regulated pipelines, a portfolio with organic expansion opportunities. For example, Mountain Valley Pipeline has multiple ways to grow and is ideally positioned to bring gas from the Marcellus Shale even further into the Southeast, where gas demand is already high. Energy Resources had another record year originating new long-term contracted generation and storage projects.
What went well
- NextEra Energy delivered full-year 2025 adjusted earnings per share of $3.71, up over 8% from 2024 and slightly above the top end of the range communicated at the December investor conference.
- Energy Resources had a record origination year, adding approximately 13.5 GW of new generation and storage to its backlog, including a record quarter of 3.6 GW, bringing three-year origination to roughly 35 GW.
- FPL began the year with a new four-year rate agreement unanimously approved by the Florida Public Service Commission, supporting $90 billion to $100 billion of planned investment through 2032 with an allowed midpoint ROE of 10.95%.
- FPL and Energy Resources together placed approximately 8.7 GW of new generation and storage into service in 2025, an Energy Resources single-year record of 7.2 GW, including over 2 GW of battery storage (up roughly 220% from 2024).
- FPL's large load interest reached over 20 GW, with advanced discussions on about 9 GW, a portion of which the company believes it could begin serving as soon as 2028, with each gigawatt representing roughly $2 billion of CapEx.
- FPL maintained cost leadership, with non-fuel O&M more than 71% below the industry average and a typical retail bill more than 30% lower than the national average.
What went wrong
- Energy Resources contributions from existing clean energy assets decreased $0.04 per share, as higher nuclear contributions were more than offset by the absence of earnings from the 2024 minority pipeline sale and other headwinds including wind resource.
- Other impacts reduced Energy Resources results by $0.30 per share year-over-year, reflecting higher financing costs of $0.17 per share, increased development activity, and higher state taxes.
- Adjusted earnings per share from the corporate and other segment decreased $0.12 per share year-over-year, primarily driven by higher interest costs.
- The 2026 adjusted EBITDA outlook for gas pipelines and gas infrastructure is down year-over-year, driven by Explorer's divestiture of the Meade Pipeline and a roughly $50 million reduction in gas infrastructure.
Guidance Changes
| Metric | Period | Current guidance |
|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | FY2026 | $3.92 to $4.02, targeting the high end (Unchanged from prior expectation) |
| Adjusted EPS CAGR | Through 2032 (off 2025 base of $3.71) | 8%+ (Reaffirmed) |
| Adjusted EPS CAGR | 2032 through 2035 (off 2025 base) | 8%+ targeted (Reaffirmed) |
| Dividends per share growth | Through 2026 (off 2024 base) | roughly 10% per year (Reaffirmed) |
| Dividends per share growth | Year-end 2026 through 2028 | 6% per year (Reaffirmed) |
| Operating cash flow growth | 2025 to 2032 | at or above the adjusted EPS CAGR range (Reaffirmed) |
| Electric and gas transmission plus Energy Resources regulated and invested capital | By 2032 (off 2025 base) | $20 billion, a 20% CAGR (Reaffirmed) |
Performance Breakdown
| Metric | YoY | Note |
|---|---|---|
| FPL EPS | +$0.21 vs 2024 | Principally driven by regulatory capital employed growth of approximately 8.1%. |
| Energy Resources adjusted earnings | +approximately 13% | New investments added $0.47 per share on continued demand growth; customer supply and trading added $0.04 per share, partly offset by lower existing-asset and other contributions. |
| FPL retail sales (weather-normalized) | +1.7% (Q4 and full year) | Driven primarily by continued strong customer growth, with over 90,000 customers added in Q4 versus the prior-year quarter. |
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
| Topic | Previous mention | Current period | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Data center and hyperscaler large load demand | — | FPL has over 20 GW of interest with 9 GW in advanced discussions; FPL expects large load announcements in 2026 | Rising |
| Battery storage | — | Storage is almost one-third of the 30 GW backlog with a 95 GW standalone and co-located pipeline; supply secured through 2029 | Rising |
| Gas-fired generation | — | Pipeline topped 20 GW; turbine slots secured with GE Vernova for 4 GW; targeting roughly 6 GW COD by 2032 | Rising |
| Nuclear and SMR development | — | Advancing Duane Arnold recommissioning and evaluating SMR OEMs with 6 GW of co-location opportunity; treated as upside outside the base plan | Rising |
| Renewables resource mix | — | Mix trending toward more solar and storage relative to wind, though some wind additions appeared in 2028-2029 backlog | Steady |
| Gas transmission and pipelines | — | Acquired a portion of Con Ed's MVP interest; over 1,000 miles of FERC-regulated pipelines positioned as a multi-year growth area despite a near-term 2026 EBITDA dip | Rising |
Q&A Summary
Does Google's acquisition of renewables developer Intersect change the NextEra partnership, and does hyperscaler buying of developers pose competitive risk?
Ketchum said it has no impact on the partnership, noting Google called in advance. Intersect is a smaller developer concentrated in California and ERCOT with limited safe harbor, inventory, permitted sites, and supply chain positions. NextEra's nationwide footprint, secured solar and storage supply through 2029, permitted sites at 1.5x coverage, and cross-technology experience leave him unconcerned about competitive risk.
How should investors think about data center siting opposition and rate-increase concerns, including in Florida?
Scott Bores said two bills are in the Florida legislative session, with the more constructive Senate version advancing through committee and largely mirroring protections already in FPL's tariff; nothing concerning in Florida. Ketchum added that nationally NextEra's footprint and value-chain capabilities help design affordable, reliable solutions, with the model heading toward bring-your-own-generation where hyperscalers shoulder incremental generation costs.
What does success in 2026 look like against the development targets, and what is the resource mix and FPL timeline?
Ketchum called the targets realistic, based on historical market share of 15-20% in renewables, 20-30% in storage, and 5-10% in gas through 2032. The 15-by-2035 origination channel implies roughly 6 GW of gas COD by 2032 with the balance renewables and storage. Pimentel and Ketchum said 2026 is about execution, with FPL large load announcements expected; Bolster pointed to tracking against the page 13 expectations.
What is the gating item on the FPL large load customer side before agreements move forward?
Ketchum said customers committing roughly $10 billion of capital want long-term comfort, and pending Tallahassee legislation on water usage and what large load entities can obtain from municipalities or the state is a factor they are watching. He expects a constructive legislative outcome and large load announcements in FPL's territory in 2026.
On gas supply chain, when will the additional gas turbine capacity beyond the secured 4 GW be locked, and what about pricing and availability?
Ketchum said the 4 GW position is allocated against the data center hub opportunity set, and more will be secured as discussions advance across the 20 GW of hubs targeted to grow to 40 by year-end. He is not worried about turbine availability given the GE Vernova partnership and said pricing remains consistent with what was communicated in December.
On the PJM transmission project with Exelon, what is the confidence level given Pennsylvania pushback?
Hickson said confidence remains high, with PJM management continuing to recommend the project to its board. The project is described as important for reliability and the lowest-cost answer in the region, and NextEra will keep listening to stakeholders through the process.
More on Nextera Energy Inc
Reported 2026-01-27 · figures from the Nextera Energy Inc Q4 2025 earnings call.
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