What Management Said
Read the full Q3 2025 transcript ↗Our actual results may differ materially from our projections due to a wide range of risks and uncertainties that are described in our earnings release and detailed in all our SEC filings. Rockwell had another good quarter as we returned to year-over-year sales growth. We're also making good progress on our journey to the segment margin goals we introduced at our November 2023 Investor Day. These investments will complement our robust productivity programs to drive our global growth and margin expansion goals.
Similar to last quarter, our total company book-to-bill was about 1.0, with year-over-year orders growth in the Americas, EMEA, and Asia. Reported sales were up 5%, and our organic sales were up over 4% year-over-year, with currency contributing less than a point of growth in the quarter. Similar to last quarter, product sales were better than some of the longer cycle businesses, which tend to be more capital intensive. Double-digit growth in our cloud-native software business was offset by relative weakness in recurring services, mainly driven by delays in cybersecurity investments.
Software and control organic sales grew 22% year-over-year, driven by strong growth in our hardware business. Our SaaS business grew 10% year-over-year with strategic wins across Plex and Fix. One of our important software wins in Q3 was with Beam Therapeutics, a leader in manufacturing of cell and gene therapies. FactoryTalk PharmaSuite MES software will help this customer automate their production process and ensure quality control as they continue to expand their commercial operations in this fast-growing vertical.
What went well
- Rockwell returned to year-over-year sales growth in Q3 fiscal 2025, with reported sales up 5% and organic sales up over 4%, and results above expectations.
- The company had a diverse set of strategic wins across discrete, hybrid, and process segments, and Software & Control organic sales grew 22% driven by Logix sales up over 30% year-over-year.
- Segment margin of 21.2% and adjusted EPS of $2.82 were both above expectations, mainly due to higher volume and strong execution on cost reduction and margin expansion actions.
- The company achieved its full-year $250 million productivity goal a quarter early, reaching $360 million in structural cost savings over five quarters.
- Free cash flow of $489 million was $251 million higher than the prior year, with 153% conversion.
- Rockwell raised its full-year adjusted EPS guidance midpoint to $10.00 and announced plans to invest over $2 billion over the next five years in plants, digital infrastructure, and talent to drive growth and margin expansion.
What went wrong
- Lifecycle Services organic sales declined 6% versus prior year, with its margin down 600 basis points to 13.3% due to a sales decline against record prior-year margins that had no incentive expense.
- Intelligent Devices organic sales rose only 1% and its margin fell 140 basis points to 18.8%, primarily on higher compensation expense.
- Annual recurring revenue grew 7%, below expectations, as double-digit cloud-native software growth was offset by weakness in recurring services driven by delays in cybersecurity investments.
- Process industries sales were down low single digits as energy, chemicals, mining, and metals faced weak global demand and volatile commodity prices.
- Management estimated that pull-ins may have accounted for at most two to three points of Q3 growth, and flagged a potential 2%-3% effective tax rate increase in fiscal 2026 from BEPS Pillar Two.
Guidance Changes
| Metric | Period | Current guidance |
|---|---|---|
| Reported sales growth | FY2025 | -0.5% YoY (midpoint, narrowed) (midpoint raised slightly) |
| Adjusted EPS | FY2025 | $9.80-$10.20 ($10.00 midpoint) (raised) |
| Segment operating margin | FY2025 | ~20% (unchanged) |
| Price realization | FY2025 | 2%+ (raised to 2%+) |
| Adjusted ETR | FY2025 | 17% (unchanged) |
| Full-year compensation expense | FY2025 | ~$230M (merit + bonus) |
| Net interest expense | FY2025 | ~$140M |
| Corporate and other expense | FY2025 | ~$155M |
| Five-year investment program | FY2025-FY2030 | over $2B (CapEx + OpEx, partly run-rate) (newly introduced) |
Performance Breakdown
| Metric | YoY | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Reported sales | +5% | return to growth, minimal currency impact, product strength |
| Organic sales | +4%+ | product sales outperformed longer-cycle capital-intensive businesses |
| Software & Control organic sales | +22% | strong hardware growth, Logix up over 30%, SaaS up 10% |
| Intelligent Devices organic sales | +1% | double-digit product growth offset by configured-to-order decline |
| Lifecycle Services organic sales | -6% | in line with expectations against difficult comp; customers delaying capital projects |
| Discrete sales | +10% | growth in automotive and e-commerce and warehouse automation |
| E-commerce and warehouse automation sales | +30% | continued strength across all customer segments, growing AMR interest |
| Process industries sales | low single-digit decline | weak global demand and volatile commodity prices constraining investment |
| Software & Control margin | +800 bps (31.6%) | double-digit volume growth and strong price realization |
| Adjusted EPS | $2.82 (above expectations) | higher volume and strong cost reduction/margin expansion execution |
| Free cash flow | +$251M ($489M) | higher income and conversion of 153% |
| Annual recurring revenue | +7% | double-digit cloud-native software offset by weak recurring services (cybersecurity delays) |
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
| Topic | Previous mention | Current period | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cost reduction / margin expansion program | $250M FY2025 target, $110M in FY2024 | $250M target met in three quarters; $360M over five quarters; transitioning into core | Ahead of plan, operationalizing |
| Five-year strategic investment | — | over $2B in plants, digital infrastructure, and talent; majority CapEx, on offense | New, expansionary |
| Large-project CapEx unlock | customers delaying capital projects | some advancing greenfields; delays not cancellations; higher U.S. capacity orders expected in FY2026 | Gradually improving |
| Tariffs and pricing | mitigation via resiliency and price; ~1% historical price | near-zero EPS tariff impact, ~1 point tariff-based price; full-year price 2%+ | Managed, higher price |
| Pull-in / demand sustainability | — | at most 2-3 points of Q3 growth from pull-ins; no notable demand inflection | Stable underlying demand |
| Tax outlook | — | BEPS Pillar Two to raise ETR 2%-3% in FY2026; new U.S. tax bill not material to Rockwell | Fy2026 headwind |
Q&A Summary
Scott Davis (Melius): Why the big CapEx step-up now, are you behind or playing offense?
Blake said it is solidly on offense, building on productivity progress to expand margins beyond the segment targets; investments in plants, talent, and digital infrastructure have already shown labor productivity, energy, and time-to-competence benefits. Christian added not all $2 billion is incremental (some is run-rate), all programs are ROI-based with double-digit hurdle rates, and they already see a path to the 23.5% target with this funding the next horizon.
Andrew Obin (BofA): How do you think about growth into next year given investment and tax headwinds?
Blake said top-line growth is key and they are committed to margin expansion regardless of top line, having contemplated the tax headwind. Christian added they expect price and continued yield from cost programs and anticipate margin expansion in fiscal 2026 despite tougher comps.
Andy Kaplowitz (Citi): Is the environment supportive of bookings continuing to improve, and is Logix strength evidence of reshoring or CapEx?
Blake said tracked projects are seeing delays but not cancellations and are being greenlit when they clear higher scrutiny; he expects higher U.S. capacity order intake in FY2025 rising again in FY2026, with strength in discrete and hybrid verticals. Christian said book-to-bill around one implies flattish backlog, with Lifecycle possibly dipping below one in Q4 on seasonal shipments.
Julian Mitchell (Barclays): How significant were Q3 pull-forwards versus project delays given six of nine markets look lower?
Blake clarified potential pull-forwards are on the product side while delays are on the project side (configured-to-order and Lifecycle); automotive returned to good year-over-year growth and home and personal care grew strongly, so the overall view is balanced with constructive product demand and continued project delays.
Chris Snyder (Morgan Stanley): Was the pull-forward a revenue or order phenomenon and how did you arrive at it?
Blake said it is mainly in products with no specific orders to point to; with book-to-bill near one, orders and shipments track closely, distributor inventories show nothing unusual, and machine builders are not building inventory, so they flag it only out of prudence in a volatile time.
Steve Tusa (JPMorgan): What is the updated pricing outlook for Q4 and into next year?
Christian said price realization has run around 3% recently versus a ~1% historical assumption and is now comfortably 2%+ for the full year, including a Q4 contribution partly from lower-value tariff-based pricing; he was not ready to give a full FY2026 price update but feels good about continued realization beyond list-to-list increases.
More on Rockwell Automation, Inc
Reported 2025-08-06 · figures from the Rockwell Automation, Inc Q3 2025 earnings call.
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