What Management Said
Read the full Q4 2025 transcript ↗Free cash flow is defined as cash from operations less capital expenditures. Adjusted earnings, adjusted earnings per share, and adjusted segment earnings exclude the impact of restructuring and impairment expenses. I want to take a moment to sincerely thank all of our employees for their outstanding dedication and hard work in 2025, allowing us to navigate a dynamic environment and deliver record EPS. Our EPS increased 6% to a record $3.85, driven by profitability improvements in both segments.
North America segment margin improved 20 basis points over 2024 adjusted segment margin, led by profitability improvements in our water treatment business, as well as mix benefits from higher commercial sales. In our Rest of World segment, benefits from our 2024 restructuring actions and other cost control measures in China resulted in margin expansion of 40 basis points, even with lower China sales. We returned $597 million of capital to shareholders with our dividend and share repurchases. In the fourth quarter, we announced the acquisition of Leonard Valve, which we completed earlier this month.
This acquisition expands our water management market reach, digital capabilities, and integrated product portfolio. We project that full year 2025 residential industry unit volumes were roughly flat to 2024, and the commercial water heater industry volumes increased approximately 5%. Our North America boiler sales grew 8% compared to 2024 due to higher commercial and residential boiler volumes, as well as pricing benefits. We are pleased with our 2025 boiler performance and the continued strong demand for our market-leading high-efficiency products.
What went well
- A. O. Smith delivered record full-year 2025 EPS of $3.85, up 6% versus adjusted EPS of $3.73 in 2024, with the fourth-quarter EPS of $0.90 also up 6% over the prior-year adjusted $0.85.
- North America segment earnings grew 2% to $728 million and segment margin improved 20 basis points to 24.4%, led by water-treatment profitability gains and higher commercial volumes; in the fourth quarter North America earnings rose 7% to $165 million with margin up 70 basis points to 23.1%.
- The water treatment business expanded operating margin by 400 basis points to almost 13%, while priority dealer, direct-to-consumer and e-commerce channels grew 10% in 2025.
- North America boiler sales grew 8% in 2025 on higher commercial and residential boiler volumes plus pricing, reflecting continued strong demand for the market-leading Lochinvar high-efficiency products.
- Despite a 12% local-currency decline in China third-party sales, Rest of World segment margin expanded 40 basis points to 8.7% and China profitability improved 130 basis points on 2024 restructuring actions and expense management.
- The India business grew, with legacy India up 13% and organic India up 18% in local currency, complemented by Pureit sales of $54 million for the year ($8 million in the fourth quarter).
- The company generated strong free cash flow of $546 million, up 15% with 100% conversion, returned $597 million of capital to shareholders, and repurchased approximately 5.9 million shares for $401 million while extending its 30-plus-year dividend increase streak.
What went wrong
- China full-year third-party sales fell 12% in local currency on continued economic weakness and soft consumer demand, worsening in the second half as government subsidy programs were discontinued.
- Rest of World segment sales declined 4% year-over-year for the full year to $880 million and fell 13% in the fourth quarter to $206 million, with Q4 segment earnings down to $16 million from $19 million and margin down to 7.8% from 8.1%, primarily due to lower China sales.
- The wholesale residential channel faced pressure in the fourth quarter from a new-construction slowdown and retailers expanding into the professional market, driving increased competitive intensity.
- North America water treatment sales decreased 2% in 2025 as the strategic shift away from the on-the-shelf retail channel offset growth in the more profitable priority channels.
- Higher input costs partially offset the fourth-quarter North America margin and earnings gains.
Guidance Changes
| Metric | Period | Current guidance |
|---|---|---|
| EPS | FY2026 | $3.85-$4.15 (midpoint ~4% growth) |
| Total top-line growth | FY2026 | approximately 2%-5% |
| North America segment margin | FY2026 | 24%-24.5% |
| Rest of World segment margin | FY2026 | 8%-9% |
| North America boiler sales growth | FY2026 | 6%-8% |
| North America water treatment sales growth | FY2026 | 10%-12% |
| Water treatment operating margin | FY2026 | improve additional 200 bps to ~15% |
| China sales | FY2026 | decrease mid-single digits (first half difficult, return to growth in second half) |
| India sales growth (incl. Pureit) | FY2026 | approximately 10% |
| U.S. residential industry unit volumes | FY2026 | flat to down |
| U.S. commercial water heater industry volumes | FY2026 | increase mid-single digits (buy-ahead of non-condensing gas products before Oct 2026 regulatory change) |
| Steel prices | FY2026 | increase approximately 10% year-over-year |
| Free cash flow | FY2026 | $525 million-$575 million |
| CapEx | FY2026 | $70 million-$80 million |
| Interest expense | FY2026 | $30 million-$40 million (Leonard Valve debt) |
| Corporate and other expenses | FY2026 | approximately $80 million-$85 million (incl. Leonard Valve advisory fees) |
| Effective tax rate | FY2026 | 24%-24.5% |
| Share repurchases | FY2026 | approximately $200 million (board approved 5 million additional shares) |
| Diluted shares outstanding (year-end) | FY2026 | 138 million |
| Quarterly dividend | Q1 2026 | $0.36 per share |
| Leonard Valve sales contribution | FY2026 | approximately $70 million |
Performance Breakdown
| Metric | YoY | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Full-year sales | slight increase to $3.8 billion | pricing benefits and higher commercial water heater and boiler volumes offset by lower China sales |
| Full-year EPS | +6% to record $3.85 (vs adjusted $3.73) | profitability improvements in both segments |
| North America segment sales | slight increase to $3 billion | pricing actions and higher boiler and commercial water heater volumes offset by lower residential wholesale volumes |
| North America segment earnings | +2% to $728 million | improved water treatment profitability and higher commercial volumes |
| North America segment margin | +20 bps to 24.4% | water treatment profitability and higher commercial volumes |
| North America water heater sales | +1% | cost and tariff-related pricing and higher commercial volumes offset lower wholesale residential volumes |
| North America boiler sales | +8% | higher commercial and residential boiler volumes and pricing |
| North America water treatment sales | -2% | strategic shift away from on-the-shelf retail channel offset priority-channel growth |
| Rest of World segment sales | -4% to $880 million | lower China sales partially offset by 13% India growth and Pureit sales of $54 million |
| Rest of World segment earnings | flat at $76 million | lower China sales offset by 2024 restructuring and cost-saving measures |
| Rest of World segment margin | +40 bps to 8.7% | restructuring benefits and cost controls despite lower China sales |
| China third-party sales | -12% local currency | continued economic weakness and soft consumer demand as government subsidies were discontinued in the second half |
| China profitability | +130 bps | late-2024 restructuring actions and expense management |
| Q4 total sales | flat at $913 million | pricing benefits offset by lower China sales |
| Q4 EPS | +6% to $0.90 (vs adjusted $0.85) | segment profitability gains |
| Q4 North America segment sales | +3% to $714 million | pricing benefits |
| Q4 North America segment earnings | +7% to $165 million | pricing benefits and water treatment profitability actions, partially offset by higher input costs |
| Q4 North America segment margin | +70 bps to 23.1% | pricing benefits and water treatment profitability actions offset by higher input costs |
| Q4 Rest of World segment sales | -13% to $206 million | lower China sales |
| Q4 Rest of World segment earnings | -$3 million to $16 million (margin 7.8% vs 8.1%) | lower China sales partially offset by restructuring and cost-saving benefits |
| Q4 organic India sales | +18% local currency | brand strength and new-product innovation |
| Free cash flow | +15% to $546 million (100% conversion) | lower capital investments, higher earnings, and a one-time tax adjustment |
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
| Topic | Previous mention | Current period | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Portfolio management as a strategic value-creation lever | water treatment pursued largely as a standalone platform | three levers (portfolio management, innovation, operational excellence) with active portfolio transformation and periodic updates going forward | — |
| Expansion into the water management market | core business of water heaters and boilers plus water treatment | Leonard Valve acquisition (mixing valves, Leonard and Heat-Timer brands, ~30% connected products, ~80% repair/replacement) is the first action into the broader water management ecosystem | — |
| China strategic assessment | restructuring and cost management to protect profitability | ongoing assessment exploring strategic options with a number of potential partners to reposition the business for an eventual recovery | — |
| Water treatment repositioning | broad presence including on-the-shelf retail channel | prioritized higher-margin dealer/DTC/e-commerce channels, exited retail, expanded margin 400 bps with 200 bps more targeted in 2026 | — |
| Gas tankless investment | building a foundation in the category | continued investment to offer best-in-class product, with minimal projected 2026 North America margin impact as scale builds | — |
| M&A discipline and pipeline | water treatment platform build via multiple acquisitions | disciplined, opportunistic approach across water management, India, and water treatment, leveraging strong industry reputation and balance-sheet capacity | — |
Q&A Summary
What is making the residential downturn more persistent, with a third year of flattish-to-declining industry volumes expected in 2026? (Jefferies)
Emergency replacement and proactive replacement (above 30% of total replacement for five-plus years) remain resilient; the pressure is concentrated in new home completions (single- and multifamily). Without lower interest rates or new-home-sales velocity, new construction will weigh on top-line residential volumes.
What gives confidence China returns to growth in the second half after a double-digit first-half decline? (Jefferies)
The first half must lap 2025 government subsidies that drove demand; growth returns as the company moves past that comp, remodel and refurbishment needs resume, and internal actions focus on driving growth in specific areas.
What does increased competitive intensity in the wholesale channel mean for price and share, and how does it net against retail strength? (Baird)
A. O. Smith has meaningful share in both retail and wholesale, so it participates in shifts between them. Low new construction plus retailers gaining share pressures the wholesale channel, intensifying competition driven by existing leaders (not new entrants); intensity accelerated over the last six months. The company will focus on wholesale geographies and products under the most pressure.
How should 2026 earnings and revenue cadence relative to normal seasonality? (Baird)
Unlike 2024 and 2025 (which were 53% first half / 47% back half in residential water heating due to price-driven pull-forward), 2026 will be more normalized near 50/50 or 51/49, creating tough first-half comps. Steel up ~10%, carryover tariffs in the first half, and China weakness (especially Q1 due to Chinese New Year plus the subsidy lapse) weigh early, with China improving in the back half.
Can you give more color on Leonard Valve's go-to-market, end markets, and the growth rate implied by the ~$70 million 2026 sales? (KeyBanc)
Leonard Valve is strong in commercial markets with a spec-in-driven Heat-Timer controls business similar to Lochinvar, sharing many reps and distribution channels and operating in the same mechanical rooms. The business has been growing double digits (~10%), largely driven by the digital portion of the market.
How do you expect price-cost to trend through the year amid tariffs and lapping price increases? (KeyBanc)
There is carryover pricing into 2026, and the company historically protects its price-cost relationship well, though some fade typically occurs. Management is committed to keeping customers competitive and will watch closely.
How should we think about water management TAM expansion, LVC as a foundation, and appetite for incremental M&A? (Oppenheimer)
Water management (moving, mixing, controlling water) opens larger market opportunities beyond the core water heaters/boilers, with a healthy pipeline. Leonard Valve is the first step; there are near-term go-to-market opportunities and longer-term growth as the company serves commercial customers' broader energy-efficiency needs, while remaining disciplined on acquisitions.
Any color on the direction of the China strategic assessment and whether options have narrowed? (Oppenheimer)
The company is moving with urgency but thoughtfully, aiming to make the business as competitive as possible. It cannot name specific partners, the quality of conversations has been terrific, and the local China team is actively involved, but the scope of potential options has not yet been narrowed.
Can you detail the composition of the water treatment 400 bps margin improvement and multi-year margin trajectory? (Longbow)
Entered the space ~eight years ago via multiple acquisitions; recent prioritization of which markets to focus on (with end-2024 restructuring) has been a growth drag but improved profitability, aided by integration synergies. The journey continues, with expectations to drive meaningful growth and continue expanding margins.
Where are water treatment margins today versus the North America segment average? (Longbow)
Water treatment is now in the ~13% operating-margin zip code after 400 bps of expansion, versus North America's 24.4%; another 200 bps in 2026 would reach ~15%. Management likes being back to mid-teens and sees M&A opportunities to grow the business and potentially enhance the margin profile.
What are you seeing in water treatment consumer demand patterns and how does it inform the 2026 guide? (Longbow)
The business is closely tied to consumers, so there is some caution entering 2026 given the discretionary nature in some segments, but overall growth is expected as the category grows, penetration opportunities remain, and the dealer network expands.
Is wholesale residential now a 'jump ball,' and is the whole wholesale half a concern? (Seaport)
Not a jump ball — these are long-standing industry dynamics (dedicated versus multi-brand channel partners and share shifts), intensified because the non-growing market and retail inroads with professionals dial up competition. Movements typically trigger reactions that play out over time, and A. O. Smith knows how to navigate them with customers.
With the pivot to water management, how developed is the M&A pipeline there versus the water treatment silo focus? (Seaport)
The pipeline has been visible for a while given overlap in players, go-to-market, and contractor relationships — not starting from scratch. This is not walking away from water treatment (still an attractive growth platform); the company wants to leverage its resilient core water heater and boiler cash flow for more growth, while staying disciplined and dependent on what is available and when.
What is the roadmap to scale India over three-to-five years and potential further M&A there? (JP Morgan)
The primary focus is capitalizing on the Pureit addition organically with a strong local team and high-paced innovation that has driven years of double-digit growth, now at greater scale. Additional acquisitions may come over time, but the current focus is running the existing business.
Can we forecast international margin improvement into 2027, with India scaling and China potentially improving? (JP Morgan)
This is more of a longer-term story — India is still in a growth-investment profile, and it is early to call China margin improvement despite pleasing Q4 performance from 2024 restructuring. Margin improvement in both will take time and depends on China's economy and India growth investment.
Does the 10% steel-price assumption mean 2026 average over 2025 average or an increase from current levels, and do you need more price to cover inflation? (Stifel)
Steel has risen gradually (driving a 90-120 day lag on what the company pays); the ~10% is both the year-over-year average and roughly 10% up quarter-over-quarter, with steel projected to rise further in the back half. With carryover tariffs and other rising costs, management points to its historical ability to maintain and protect its price-cost relationship and margins.
Leonard Valve's 2022-2025 revenue CAGR was double digits amid inflation and metal content — what is the long-term volume-driven growth versus price? (Stifel)
The biggest growth source has been the digital transition of mixing valves — a value-adding technology upgrade — more than cost pass-through pricing. About 30% of revenue is digital/connected products, a base the company aims to grow, and this capability was a key appeal of the deal.
If China's market doesn't recover in the second half, is there more restructuring available to maintain margin? (Citi)
Long term the answer is not endless cost-cutting; the company is making smart cuts to protect the business today while watching how the market responds to lapping subsidies. The strategic assessment could change the China approach; more restructuring will be evaluated as needed, but the ultimate goal is a strategic path that lets the business grow again.
Is the strong boiler forecast driven by high-efficiency products or overall market strength? (Citi)
It is a bit of both — a good market plus the premier Lochinvar brand with strong high-efficiency technology, with the company performing well and even taking share on its product portfolio strength.
More on Smith A O Corp
Reported 2026-01-29 · figures from the Smith A O Corp Q4 2025 earnings call.
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