TSMC is hosting our earnings conference call via live audio webcast through the company's website at www.tsmc.com, where you can also download the earnings release materials. Wendell Huang, will summarize our operations in the third quarter 2025, followed by our guidance for the fourth quarter 2025. Wendell Huang, for the summary of operations and the current quarter guidance. After that, I will provide the guidance for the fourth quarter 2025.

Third quarter revenue increased 6% sequentially in NT, as our business was supported by a strong demand for our leading-edge process technologies. dollar terms, revenue increased 10.1% sequentially to $33.1 billion, slightly ahead of our third quarter guidance. Overall, our third quarter EPS was TWD 17.44, up 39% year-over-year, and ROE was 37.8%. 3 nm process technology contributed 23% of wafer revenue in the third quarter, while 5 nm and 7 nm accounted for 37% and 14% respectively.

Advanced Technologies defined as 7 nm and below accounted for 74% of wafer revenue. Moving on to revenue contribution by platform, HPC remained flat quarter-over-quarter to account for 57% of our third quarter revenue. Based on the current business outlook, we expect our fourth quarter revenue to be between $32.2 billion and $33.4 billion, which represents a 1% sequential decrease or a 22% year-over-year increase at the midpoint. Based on the exchange rate assumption of $1 to TWD 30.6, gross margin is expected to be between 59% and 61%.

What went well
  • Third quarter revenue rose to $33.1 billion, up 10.1% sequentially in USD (6% in TWD) and slightly ahead of guidance, on strong demand for leading-edge process technologies.
  • Gross margin increased 90 basis points sequentially to 59.5%, exceeding the high end of guidance by 200 basis points, mainly on a more favorable actual FX rate and better cost improvement.
  • EPS was TWD 17.44, up 39% year over year, and ROE reached 37.8%.
  • Broad-based sequential platform growth: smartphone +19%, IoT +20% and automotive +18% quarter over quarter.
  • Raised full-year 2025 revenue growth guidance to close to mid-30% in USD; AI demand described as stronger than three months ago, with the AI accelerator CAGR tracking a little above the prior mid-40s%.
  • N2 on track for volume production later in the quarter with good yield and a faster ramp expected in 2026 on smartphone and HPC AI demand.
What went wrong
  • HPC platform revenue was flat sequentially, and DCE fell 20% quarter over quarter.
  • Fourth quarter guidance implies a 1% sequential revenue decline at the midpoint.
  • Overseas fab dilution continued as a drag and is forecast to widen to 3%-4% in later stages, even as near-term full-year 2025 dilution improved to 1%-2%.
  • Management cited tariff and price-sensitive consumer uncertainties heading into 2026, prompting prudent business planning.
  • Capacity remained very tight across both front-end and advanced packaging, with the demand-supply gap not yet closed.

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodCurrent guidance
RevenueQ4 2025$32.2B-$33.4B (-1% QoQ / +22% YoY at midpoint)
Gross marginQ4 202559%-61% (+50 bps at midpoint)
Operating marginQ4 202549%-51%
Full-year revenue growthFY 2025close to mid-30% (USD) (raised)
Capital budgetFY 2025$40B-$42B (range narrowed upward)
Overseas fab margin dilutionFY 20251%-2% (improved)

Performance Breakdown

MetricYoYNote
EPS +39% Reached TWD 17.44 on strong leading-edge demand and operating leverage.
Revenue — Up 10.1% sequentially in USD to $33.1B on leading-edge demand; explicit YoY not given, but Q4 guided +22% YoY at midpoint.
Gross margin — Rose 90 bps sequentially to 59.5% on cost improvement and higher utilization, partially offset by overseas dilution and unfavorable FX.

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious mentionCurrent periodTrend
AI demandRobust; mid-40s% AI accelerator CAGR (2024-2029)Stronger than three months ago; tracking a little above mid-40s%, with an update promised in JanuaryIncreasing
CapEx$38B-$42B for 2025Narrowed to $40B-$42B; higher CapEx correlated with higher future growthIncreasing
N2 / A16 rampOn trackN2 volume production later this quarter with good yield, faster ramp in 2026; N2P and A16 in H2 2026Increasing
Arizona / overseas expansionSpeeding up ArizonaClose to securing a second land parcel; upgrading Arizona to more advanced nodes faster on AI demandExpanding
Gross margin / FX58.6% in Q2 with FX headwind59.5%, beat guidance on favorable actual FX; each 1% FX move affects margin ~40 bpsImproving
Non-AI recovery / tariffsMild non-AI recoveryNon-AI bottomed and in mild recovery; tariff and consumer price-sensitivity risks into 2026Mixed

Q&A Summary

Any update to the mid-40% AI accelerator CAGR given stronger customer signals?
AI demand is stronger than three months ago; the CAGR is a little better than the prior mid-40s%, and TSMC will provide a clearer update early next year after talking to customers and their customers.
How should CapEx trend over the next couple of years?
TSMC spends CapEx based on the following years' business opportunities and will not hesitate to invest; if it executes well, revenue growth should continue to outpace CapEx growth, and CapEx is unlikely to drop significantly in any year.
Can you quantify the 2026 CoWoS capacity plan and AI revenue share?
Management would not give specific numbers, only that AI front-end and back-end capacity is very tight and TSMC is working hard to narrow the demand-supply gap into 2026, with details to come next year.
Does US export restriction on China AI GPUs threaten the AI CAGR?
CC Wei is confident in his GPU and ASIC customers; even without the China market, AI growth will be dramatic and TSMC will keep supporting customers, sustaining the mid-40s%+ CAGR.
How does the exponential token growth reconcile with a mid-40s% AI revenue CAGR?
Node migration and customer design improvements let each new generation handle far more tokens efficiently, so combined technology gains cover the exponential token growth.
What is the revenue opportunity per gigawatt of AI data center capacity?
Customers say roughly $50 billion of investment per 1 GW; TSMC is not ready to share its wafer content per gigawatt because an AI system now uses many chips together, not one.
Directionally, what are the 2026 gross margin puts and takes, including N2 dilution?
It is too early for 2026, but N2 will dilute margin as it ramps while N3 dilution eases toward the corporate average in 2026; overseas dilution (~2%-3% early stage) continues and FX remains uncontrollable at ~40 bps per 1% move.

More on Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd

Reported 2025-10-16 · figures from the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd Q3 2025 earnings call.

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